A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture

Keith Kreis
Published on March 16, 2017

A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture

The inventory of existing homes for sale in today’s market was recently reported to be at a 3.6-month supply according to the National Association of Realtors latest Existing Home Sales Report. Inventory is now 7.1% lower than this time last year, marking the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year drops.

Historically, inventory must reach a 6-month supply for a normal market where home prices appreciate with inflation. Anything less than a 6-month supply is a sellers’ market, where the demand for houses outpaces supply and prices go up.

As you can see from the chart below, the United States has been in a sellers’ market since August 2012, but last month’s numbers reached a new low.

A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture | Simplifying The Market

Recently Trulia revealed that not only is there a shortage of homes on the market in general, but the homes that are available for sale are not meeting the needs of the buyers that are searching.

Homes are generally bucketed into three groups by price range: starter, trade-up, and premium.

Trulia’s market mismatch score measures the search interest of buyers against the category of homes that are available on the market. For example: “if 60% of buyers are searching for starter homes but only 40% of listings are starter homes, [the] market mismatch score for starter homes would be 20.”

The results of their latest analysis are detailed in the chart below.

A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture | Simplifying The Market

Nationally, buyers are searching for starter and trade-up homes and are coming up short with the listings available, leading to a highly competitive seller’s market in these categories. Ninety-two of the top 100 metros have a shortage in trade-up inventory.

Premium homebuyers have the best chance of less competition and a surplus of listings in their price range with an 11-point surplus, leading to more of a buyer’s market.

“It leaves Americans who are in the market for a home increasingly chasing too fewer options in lower price ranges, and sellers of premium homes more likely to be left waiting longer for a buyer.”

 Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist doesn’t see an end to this coming any time soon: 

“Competition is likely to heat up even more heading into the spring for house hunters looking for homes in the lower- and mid-market price range.”

Bottom Line

Real estate is local. If you are thinking about buying OR selling this spring, let’s get together to discuss the exact market conditions in your area. source: www.simplifyingthemarket.com

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2017: What to expect in the housing market

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With the new year knocking on the door, one of the questions I hear most frequently is where I think the real estate market is headed in 2017. Buyers, especially, want to know if the market will morph into one a bit more favorable to their interests. Buy Real Estate

Ah, if only I had a crystal ball and could cut right to the chase to tell you what’s going to happen in the 2017 real estate market. Since we don’t have a handy tool to help us discern the future, we rely on experts in various economic niches for our housing market prognostications every year. Are they always right? Nope, but they do get awfully close. Buy Real Estate

Personally, I combine what I learn from the economic forecasts with my experience every day as a boots-on-the-ground real estate professional and with our Multiple Listing Service statistics. So, let’s dive in. Buy Real Estate

Interest rates Buy Real Estate

As you know, the Feds raised the federal funds interest rates earlier this month. While it was an increase of only a quarter of a percentage point they did say to expect a couple more rate hikes in 2017. So, how does this affect the real estate consumer?

Yes, those with an adjustable rate mortgage will take a hit, as will homeowners with an adjustable rate home equity line of credit, or HELOC, tied to the prime rate (albeit a smaller, hardly noticeable hit in most cases). Buy Real Estate

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